European Green Deal: Threats Assessment for Agri-Food Exporting Countries to the EU

Abstract

This article is devoted to assessing and substantiating the threats for countries/exporters of agricultural products to the EU under conditions of the European Green Deal. The revealed comparative advantages index (RCA), comparison method, correlation and regression analysis, and taxonomic method have been applied. According to the RCA index the main causes for the relatively significant volume of agri-food exports by some countries to the EU have been identified; using the comparison method it was found that among the leading countries by agricultural products export to the EU, many states do not meet the European Green Deal target criteria for agriculture. Correlation and regression analysis has revealed that among the chosen factors only the volume of fertilisers use per cropland has direct and strong influence on CO2eq emissions; by a taxonomic method the threats value for the leading agri-food exporters to the EU has been calculated. The major agri-food exporters to the EU under conditions of the European Green Deal targets till 2030 have a high threat regarding reduction of their supply to the Member States in the case of a possible Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism or the introduction of other import restriction mechanisms in future. The results of the study can be used by the government and other executive bodies of the analysed countries to make adequate and rapid decisions to avoid the threats of possible agri-food exports reduction to the EU under the further European Green Deal implementation.