Abstract
The European grapevine moth (Lobesia botrana; Denis and Schiffermüller, 1775) is considered a key pest for grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) in the Douro Region, Portugal. The phenology of both the grapevine and the pest has changed in the last decades due to the increase in temperature. Here, we assess the potential impact of climate change on the (a)synchrony of both species. The results show that the phenological stages (budburst, flowering and veraison) undergo an advancement throughout the region (at an ~1 km resolution) under a climate change scenario (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP8.5) for the period 2051–2080, with respect to the historic period (1989–2015). For cv. Touriga Nacional and Touriga Franca, the budburst advances up to 14 days, whereas for flowering and veraison the advancements are up to 10 days (mainly at low elevations along the Douro River). For the phenology of Lobesia botrana, earliness was also verified in the three flights (consequently there may be more generations per year), covering the entire region. Furthermore, the third flight advances further compared to the others. For both varieties, the interaction between the third flight (beginning and peak) and the veraison date is the most relevant modification under the future climate change scenario (RCP8.5, 2051–2080). The aforementioned outcomes from the phenology models help to better understand the possible shifts of both trophic levels in the region under future climate, giving insights into their future interactions.
Highlights
Plants and insects are dependent on the accumulation of heat units for their development
The present study aimed to evaluate the impact of climate change on the phenology of both the grapevine and LB in the DDR, and to provide useful information to support strategies of management for the regional winegrowers and decision-makers
In the historic period (1989–2015), the days obtained by the phenology models were validated with visual observations in the field
Summary
Plants and insects are dependent on the accumulation of heat units for their development. Plant phenology is directly influenced by weather and climate, with the following parameters being considered: temperature, photoperiod, relative humidity, precipitation and CO2 [1]. Pests are influenced directly by climatic factors, other features such as habitat structure, overwintering, food quality, and the length of the growing season influence their development [1,2]. Changes in climatic conditions ( changes in temperature and the seasonal pattern of precipitation distribution) have already influenced the interactions between the pest and the host. In this way, it is expected that future climate change could have a strong impact on phenological stages, population dynamics, development thresholds and adaptation [3]. The prediction of possible changes in the two trophic levels can be based on simulations using phenological models [4]
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