European free trade agreements and trade balance: Evidence from four new European Union members

Abstract

This article analyses the trade balance effects of Europe agreements (EA) between the EU-15 and four new EU members from Central and Eastern Europe (CEEC-4) using both static and dynamic panel data approaches. Specifically, the system generalised method of moments (GMM, Blundell, R., and S. Bond. 1998. Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics 87, no. 1: 115–43) and recently developed econometric methods such as the Correlated Common Estimation Pooled–Hausman-Taylor (CCEP–HT, Serlenga, L., and Y. Shin. 2007. Gravity models of intra-EU trade: Application of the CCEP-HT estimation in heterogenous panels with unobserved common time-specific factors. Journal of Applied Econometrics 22: 361–81) are applied to analyse the effects of the agreement variable. Our estimation results indicate a positive and significant impact of EA on trade flows. However, there is an asymmetric impact of the agreement variable on the trade balance, exports and imports being affected in different ways, which results in a trade balance deficit in the CEEC-4.