European Energy Security: Diversification, Concentration and Renewability of Energy Supply

Abstract

Energy security assessment quantifies the energy supply to a population and the likelihood, or risk, of an energy disruption or shortage, representing an important aspect of national security, economic stability and prosperity. However, the quantification of the state of energy supply is context-dependent and involves multiple perspectives - infrastructural, technological, environmental, market, social and geopolitical. The present paper examines the energy security of European countries by analysing the diversification of the energy supply, import dependence, and renewable energy resource deployment over the last decade. The analysis utilises a set of indicators aimed at measuring the the fuel mix diversity, market concentration, geopolitical stability, renewable energy share and stochasticity - both at single country and at aggregated European levels. Results show a stable evolution of the diversity of the fuel mix and a relative low market concentration of the period examined. However, the import dependency reduces the energy security by approximately 30% due to the high proportion of imports from a limited number of countries. Moreover, an increasing trend in renewable electricity production share is evident over the last decade, as a result of the decarbonisation policies implemented by the EU, despite several differences between member states can be spotted.