European air quality in view of the WHO 2021 guideline levels: Effect of emission reductions on air pollution exposure

Abstract

Although anthropogenic emissions have decreased during the last 2 decades, air pollution is still problematic in Europe. This study analyzes the air quality in Europe using simulations by EURopean Air pollution Dispersion—Inverse Model for the year 2016 with updated emissions in view of the annual guideline levels for particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) released in 2021 by the World Health Organization (WHO). Three different emission scenarios are applied, including a scenario for the committed emission reductions from the European Union (EU), a scenario including additional reductions to specifically mitigate PM2.5, and a scenario in which all anthropogenic emissions are eliminated. Model results show that in Europe, the concentrations of PM2.5 and NO2 exceed the annual WHO guideline levels by up to a factor of 5.6 and 5.2, respectively, in the main polluted regions and by up to a factor of 2 for O3 in Southern Europe. High concentrations of PM2.5 and O3 are homogeneously distributed across Europe with 99% and 100% of the European population exposed to concentrations above the WHO guideline levels, respectively. NO2 concentrations above the annual WHO guideline level are primarily found in populated areas, affecting 323 million inhabitants in 2016. Although the emission scenario designed to mitigate PM2.5 shows a decrease of the highest annual mean concentrations of PM2.5 from 28 µgm−3 to 12 µgm−3, 527 million European inhabitants remain affected by PM2.5 annual mean concentrations above the WHO guideline level. Seasonal mean O3 concentrations after eliminating all anthropogenic emissions (between 60 and 82 µgm−3) are found to be above the WHO guideline level for the entire European continent. The mortality attributable to air pollution is reduced by 47% in the emission scenario for committed emissions by the EU. In the more aggressive scenario designed to mitigate PM2.5, the mortality is reduced by 72%. The study reveals that the emission scenarios and, therefore, the reduction in premature deaths are subject to sectoral emission reductions between 41% and 79%.