Europe's Nuclear Dominos

Abstract

As long as the United States continues to play a leading role in NATO, the incentive for European powers to acquire independent nuclear weapons is virtually zero. Most European power, however, have relatively sophisticated nuclear establishments and could easily manufacture nuclear explosives if they judged that their security required an independent capability. They might judge so if the United States pulls out of Europe and out of NATO. It is the opinion of the author that if the United States withdraws, and if France and Britain insist on maintaining their current status as independent nuclear weapons powers, they will encourage proliferation by example. The likelihood of different countries deciding to manufacture nuclear weapons under these cicumstances is evaluated. The future of NATO is assessed. The conclusions of and future structure of the Conference on Cooperation and Security in Europe (CSCE) is discussed. The impact of United Nations involvement in preventing proliferation is evaluated. Recommendations are proposed for the utilization of existing organizations to deter proliferation in Europe.