Euro area inflation persistence in an estimated nonlinear DSGE model

Abstract

We estimate the approximate non-linear solution of a small DSGE model on euro area data, using the conditional particle filter to compute the model likelihood. Our results are consistent with previous findings, based on simulated data, suggesting that this approach delivers sharper inference compared to the estimation of the linearised model. We also show that the non-linear model can account for richer economic dynamics: the impulse responses to structural shocks vary depending on initial conditions selected within our estimation sample.