Eurasian orientation and global trade integration: the case of Turkey

Abstract

The paper analyzes the dynamics of Turkey’s trade integration into the various economic blocs of the world system as well as into the peripheral subsystems of Eurasia and Mediterranean space using a gravity GMM model, for the period 1996 through 2011. The findings reveal that the trade pattern of Turkey is multispatial but without a deep integration with the EU or any other economic bloc, despite the custom union agreement with the latter since 1995. Further, the trade dynamics of Turkey is consistent with fundamentals such as size of the markets, location and other relevant factors, while, the quasi time invariant structural factors such as geography, culture and history seem to foster the Turkey’s trade relations with specific Eurasian subsystems. The rising multipolarity of the world system-cum-the fragile architecture of interests in the broader Eurasian region affect unavoidably the role and the position of Turkey itself as well as its strategic orientations. Conversely, an economically diminishing Europe seems to be unable to pursue with consistency specific Eurasian policies including the matter of official accession of Turkey in the EU.