EU-Mediterranean youths in the crisis: substitution vs. income effect

Abstract

ABSTRACTThe economic crisis that erupted in 2008 has had particularly adverse effects on the youth labour market outcomes in the European Union Mediterranean economies. So far little evidence is available on the reaction of the young to the adverse conditions their household members faced due to the crisis. Youths could have decided to prolong or stay in education instead of participating on the labour market (substitution effect) or they could have decided to increase their participation (income effect). By using the EU Labour Force Survey data, we explore the probability of young adults changing their labour market status from (i) inactivity to employment, (ii) inactivity to unemployment, (iii) employment to education, and (iv) unemployment to education in response to labour market outcome changes in their households: (i) both parents losing the job; (ii) one of the parents losing the job, (iii) both parents becoming inactive, (iv) one of the parents becoming inactive, and (v) both parents remaining unemployed. Estimated probit models include seven EU Mediterranean countries during the 2006–2015 period. Results support both income and substitution effect, without clear identification of the dominance of one effect over the other.