EU Membership: A Cost-Benefit Analysis for the UK

Abstract

This paper reviews the evidence on the economic implications of the UK’s accession to the European Economic Community and subsequent EU membership. The benefits were much greater than the costs, probably by a ratio of about 6 to 1. The UK benefited from lower trade costs and higher volumes of trade with other member countries and this raised productivity. Different estimation methods point to permanent gains in the level of real GDP of 8.6 per cent after 10 or 15 years. The costs to the UK were a net contribution to the EU budget which averaged about 0.5 per cent of GDP per year and the adoption of regulations for which compliance costs exceeded benefits, estimated at about 0.9 per cent of GDP per year. Voters in favour of Brexit who were protesting about government policies gave little or no weight to its productivity implications.