EU land use futures: modelling food, bioenergy and carbon dynamics

Alexandre Strapasson,Jeremy Woods,Jerome Meessen,Onesmus Mwabonje,Gino Baudry,Kofi Mbuk

doi:10.1016/j.esr.2020.100545

Alexandre Strapasson, Jeremy Woods + Show 4 more

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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2020.100545

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Abstract

This paper presents an original system dynamics model, which aims to assess how changes in diet, agricultural practices, bioenergy and forestry could help reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We demonstrate that changes in types and quantities of food consumed and reductions in food wastes along with sustainable bioenergy and forestry dynamics would materially assist the EU in meeting its 2050 climate mitigation obligations. We find that overall rates of EU-28 greenhouse gas emissions are highly sensitive to the food trade balance, both within and outside the EU. Land use itself is often under-represented as a major option for carbon mitigation in policy strategies, but our results show that it must become a central component aligned with energy system decarbonization if material levels of warming mitigation are to be achieved.

Highlights

Land use change, such as afforestation, reforestation and multiuse of land resources, has the potential to contribute substantially to reducing Europe’s greenhouse gas emissions
In order to evaluate the sustained potential for the AFOLU (Agri culture, Forestry and Other Land Use) sector to be used for climate change mitigation, we evaluated what land use could look like in Europe by 2050
Using our EU Land Use Futures (EULUF) model, we have assessed a wide range of different land use patterns that could arise through a combination of behavioural and technological choices over the coming decades

Summary

Introduction

Land use change, such as afforestation, reforestation and multiuse of land resources, has the potential to contribute substantially to reducing Europe’s greenhouse gas emissions. Change mitigation policies have historically focused on sus tainable energy transitions; land use management (including food, forestry and bioenergy production) and behavioural changes in dietary patterns may substantially affect greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions trajectories [1,2,3,4,5]. Europe has increased crop and livestock yields, and modernised its agricultural systems. Land use in Europe has changed, affecting land distribution for food and feed crops, livestock, forests, bioenergy, settlements and infrastructure. Fu tures land use dynamics for crop and livestock production can cause major impacts on biodiversity, soil conservation, water management and GHG emissions. Agriculture alone represents around 10% of the total GHG emissions in the European Union (EU-28), which stood at approximately 4488 MtCO2eq in 2015, excluding land use emissions [6, 7]

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