Abstract

For 1990–2019, this study presents two-step GMM estimates of EU members’ demands for defense spending based on alternative spatial-weight matrices. In particular, EU spatial connectivity is tied to EU membership status, members’ contiguity, contiguity and power projection, inverse distance, and arms trade. At a Nash equilibrium, our EU demand equations are derived explicitly from a spatially based game-theoretical model of alliances. Myriad spatial linkages among EU members provide a robust free-riding finding, which differs from the spatial and non-spatial literature on EU defense spending. Even though the EU applies common trade policies and allows for unrestricted labor movement among members, members’ defense responses adhered to those of a defense alliance. Moreover, EU defense spending exhibits positive responses to GDP and transnational terrorist attacks, and a negative response to population. During the sample period, EU members did not view Russia as a military threat.

Highlights

  • First introduced by Olson and Zeckhauser [1], the economic theory of alliances is a game-theory-based representation that continues to exert major influences on empirical studies of the demand for military expenditure (ME)

  • We present an underlying theoretical model for an European Union (EU) member’s defense demand that is sufficiently general to allow for alternative spatial considerations arising from members’

  • Results for EU and non-EU North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries combined are reported in Models

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Summary

Introduction

First introduced by Olson and Zeckhauser [1], the economic theory of alliances is a game-theory-based representation that continues to exert major influences on empirical studies of the demand for military expenditure (ME) (see, e.g., Douch and Solomon [2]; Dudley and Montmarquette [3]; Hilton and Vu [4]; Kim and Sandler [5]; McGuire andGroth [6]; Smith [7,8]). Free riding motivates an ally to reduce its defense spending in response to collective increases in that of the other allies [10,11]. Defense spending gives rise to alliance-wide and country-specific, jointly produced outputs, the anticipated negative reaction to defense spillovers and the expected disproportionate burden sharing may be curbed or even reversed [13,14,15]. In the former case, free riding is reduced

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