Ethnopolitical Rebellion: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of the 1980s with Risk Assessments for the 1990s

Abstract

Theory: A synthetic theoretical model built on both deprivation and resource mobilization arguments is constructed to explain ethnopolitical rebellion for the 1 980s and to provide risk assessments for the early 1990s. Hypotheses: We hypothesize that ethnopolitical groups which produce residuals well below the regression line will likely exhibit rebellious behavior in the early 1990s. Methods: We use a three stage least squares estimator, analyze the coefficients and their standard errors, and also examine the residuals. Results: We find broad support for the theoretical synthesis, but focus attention on the risk assessments. In addition to identifying ethnopolitical groups that did resort to greater violence in the early 1 990s, the theoretical model helps us explain why a number of groups that the analysis suggested would rebel in the early 1 990s have not in fact done so.