Abstract
Despite the routine collection of annual agricultural surveys and significant advances in GIS and remote sensing products, little econometric research has integrated these data sources in estimating developing nations’ agricultural yields. In this paper, we explore the determinants of wheat output per hectare in Ethiopia during the 2011–2013 principal Meher crop seasons at the kebele administrative area. Using a panel data approach, combining national agricultural field surveys with relevant GIS and remote sensing products, the model explains nearly 40% of the total variation in wheat output per hectare across the country. Reflecting on the high interannual variability in output per hectare, we explore whether these changes can be explained by weather, shocks to, and management of rain-fed agricultural systems. The model identifies specific contributors to wheat yields that include farm management techniques (e.g. area planted, improved seed, fertilizer, and irrigation), weather (e.g. rainfall), water availability (e.g. vegetation and moisture deficit indexes) and policy intervention. Our findings suggest that woredas produce between 9.8 and 86.5% of their locally attainable wheat yields given their altitude, weather conditions, terrain, and plant health. In conclusion, we believe the combination of field surveys with spatial data can be used to identify management priorities for improving production at a variety of administrative levels.
Highlights
This study focuses on the four major agricultural regions of Ethiopia (Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, and SNNP) because they comprise the majority of population and agricultural crop production for the country
On the basis of local expert knowledge, the start of the rainy season is estimated to occur in the first ten-day period that accounts for 2.5% of total annual rainfall, that is followed by a 30-day period that experiences no more than seven consecutive days without rain as estimated from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation data7 In addition, we focus on the decreasing portion of the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) signal past the annual EVI maximum point
Wheat yield model estimation We explore a variety of determinants for wheat output per hectare in the 2011–2013 Meher crop seasons by using a panel data approach at the kebele level
Summary
The agricultural sector is largely formed by smallholder subsistence farms burdened by dependence on erratic rain-fed systems. Ethiopia’s rain dependent agricultural system is vulnerable to shifts in climate and weather, with less than 3% of households having access to irrigation (or less than 1% of cereal acreage) (Mann and Warner, 2015; Taffesse et al, 2011). These vulnerabilities are further exaggerated by extensive use, land degradation, and household poverty
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
