Ethiopian summer temperature from the global circulation model output data and its outlooks

Solomon Addisu Legesse

doi:10.1186/s40068-016-0077-y

Abstract

Agriculture is the most susceptible sector to climate change related hazards in Ethiopia. Any minor change in temperature from the normal conditions imposes a severe challenge on the agricultural dependent people of Ethiopia. This research work, entitled ‘Ethiopian Summer Temperature from the Global Circulation Model Output Data and its Outlooks’ has been conducted to fill such knowledge gaps of the target population. The objective of the research was to analyze summer temperature from the global circulation model output data and its outlooks with the change of global climate. To attain this specific objective, global circulation model output data were used. These data were analyzed by using Xcon, Matlab and Grid Analysis and Display System computer software programs. The results revealed that the mean temperature has shown a general increasing trend (0.548 °C) since 1971–2010. The best performed models having similar trends to the historical observed temperature data analysis predicted that the future summer mean temperature has been predicted to increase by 0.59 °C (model bccr) and 0.743 °C (model cccma) from 2015 to 2054. It is therefore recommended that the legislative bodies and development planners should design strategies and plans by taking into account impacts of increasing temperature on rural livelihoods. Moreover, adverse impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies should be a crosscutting issue.

Highlights

Agriculture is the most susceptible sector to climate change related hazards in Ethiopia
Simulation of future climate for 2030 and 2050 Canadian Climate Center Model, CCCM; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Model (GFDL), the United Kingdom Meteorological Office-1989 model, (UKMO-89); and GFDL-Transient Models indicated an increase in temperature and a decrease in rainfall over Ethiopia (NMSA 2001)
GCMs output data were used to simulate the climatic effect of increased atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and the climate model output was interpolated to the scale of Ethiopia using a regular grid bilinear interpolation method

Summary

Introduction

Agriculture is the most susceptible sector to climate change related hazards in Ethiopia. Ethiopian highlands seasonal rainfall in particular and East Africa’s seasonal rainfall can be strongly influenced by the surface temperature and pressure variations across the tropical eastern pacific ocean warming and cooling (El Nino and La Ninas) respectively This attribute to ambiguity in climate forecasts, predominantly in the future inter-annual variability (McSweeney et al 2008). Simulation of future climate for 2030 and 2050 Canadian Climate Center Model, CCCM; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Model (GFDL), the United Kingdom Meteorological Office-1989 model, (UKMO-89); and GFDL-Transient Models indicated an increase in temperature and a decrease in rainfall over Ethiopia (NMSA 2001) According to this simulation study, there will be an increase in temperature and a decrease of rainfall by about 1 and 2% by 2030 and 2050, respectively. The exact nature of the changes in weather conditions, and extreme events are not known and still controversial, there is general

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