ETHEREUM CRYPTOCURRENCY PRICE MOVEMENT PREDICTION SYSTEM USING TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHOD

Abstract

An innovation that was sparked is an alternative currency to replace conventional currency, namely digital currency that is secured using a cryptographic method called Cryptocurrency. However, cryptocurrency prices cannot be controlled, causing massive fluctuations. Cryptocurrency price changes are very stable due to several factors such as speculation from users and the nature of the follow-up from new to one of the causes. The cause of this bandwagon is due to extreme price increases in a short time, even within a day the price of Crypto can experience a difference of millions of rupiah for each increase and decrease. To answer this question, we need a software that can predict the Rupiah exchange rate. By using the Triple Exponential Smoothing prediction method. In implementing Triple Exponential Smoothing, historical data is needed which will later be processed to produce prediction results, for that we need parameters that can be used as historical data counters, in this study used parameters 0.40 as parameters Xt and S't and 0.60 as Beta parameters. In the process, starting from calculating the first to third smoothing, ensuring Constants, Slopes, and Parabolics, to completing the process by producing Forecasting, the results of the measurement of the margin error level with a margin of error of 0.94638% using data for the final 2021 period, which is between November - December on the Triple Exponential implementation simulation and on the implementation into the system that has been developed is 3.7249% using data from May 2022 to June 2022.