Estimations of future reservoir volumes under different climate scenarios for a tropical reservoir in a small Caribbean Island, Trinidad

Abstract

Freshwater resources supply has always presented challenges and considering a changing climate quantifying the available water in the future is important. In the Caribbean, based on projections it is likely that the island of Trinidad would receive less intense rainfall, experience more dry days, become drier and warmer, and the water resources be decreased. In this study, the impact of a changing climate on the Navet Reservoir in Trinidad was investigated and reservoir volumes were quantified for the period 2011-2099. This period was subdivided into three time periods, 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2099, and evaluated under the representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5. Utilizing a calibrated/validated Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for the Navet Reservoir together with projections from five general circulation models (GCMs), future monthly and seasonal reservoir volumes were estimated. The GCM precipitation and temperature data were bias-corrected using linear scaling and variance scaling methods. It was found that reservoir volumes are likely to be the lowest during the period 2041-2070 at the Navet Reservoir. Additionally, the projected reservoir volumes are reliable, resilient, and not vulnerable. These results may be used by water managers in the adaptation and mitigation of the impacts of a changing climate, thus, building resilience in the water sector.