Estimation potential consequences of climate change for water resource via RS, GIS and hydrology model

Abstract

It is very important to study the hydrological process and the potential change of water resource under future climate scene either in science or in practice. However, no further research on the hydrological process in cold regions due to the high altitude, poor natural environment and rare observing sites at the present time. The upper reach of Yellow River is at northeast part of Tibet Plateau, located between 32degN-36deg25'N and 95deg30'E-103deg30'E, and covers approximately 120,000 km2, the average altitude above sea level of which is about 3500 meters. In this study, a macro-scale hydrology model, VIC-3L, via Remote Sensing and GIS, was used to tested and verified by using Tangnaihai and Huangheyan hydrological stations' observed date, then simulated the potential consequences of 2010s, 2030s and 2050s. It is proved that the degradation of permafrost in 2050s had the greatest influence in discharge, the increase of evaporation, which caused by the increase of temperature and the degradation of permafrost, would exceed the increase of precipitation. The discharge reaches the maximum in 2010s under the decrease of temperature 0.1 and the increase of precipitation 22%