Estimation of Vessel Passage Through Bosphorus

Abstract

The Bosphorus is a heritage from the past to the present with its natural, historical and cultural features. Vessels passing through the Bosphorus, which is a narrow waterway, create a risk in Istanbul Strait. Thousands of vessels carrying dangerous cargoes pass through the Bosphorus every year. In this study, the changes in the cargos carried by these vessels and number of vessels over years are examined. It is seen that approximately 44000 vessels per year have passed through considering the last decade. The data of Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure, General Directorate of Marine between the years 1995 and 2020 has been used to estimate the change of the number of the vessels for five years period. Although the estimation show that the vessels numbers will decrease with an estimation of ~32,250 vessels for the year 2025, the total gross tonnage will increase in the future years. The results show that, while the number of bulk carrier vessels, livestock carriers, passenger ships and refrigerated cargo carriers will increase, the number of general cargo vessels will decrease in the future years.