Abstract
In this paper, a model is proposed to evaluate vessel-bridge collision probability. A general mathematical model for navigation channels is suggested, which may be used for straight and meandering channels. The effects of waterway obstacles and water levels were taken into account in the proposed model. A definition and a judging criterion for an aberrant vessel to collide with a pier or an obstacle using geometry and kinematics were established. Finally, formulas were developed to estimate the vessel-bridge collision probability. The model proposed in this paper was applied to an existing bridge (Jiujiang Bridge) in China. The significances of meandering channels and waterway obstacles were noted.
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