Estimation of vehicle control delay using artificial intelligence techniques for heterogeneous traffic conditions

Abstract

The conventional standardized theoretical models (such as Webster, Alcelik, Indo-HCM) used for the delay estimation revolve around the mathematical hypothesis and assumptions, making them static with limitations in accommodating the dynamic traffic behaviors. Recent advances in artificial intelligence make machine learning techniques suitable for estimating vehicle control delay compared to conventional methods. This paper demonstrates the application of several machine learning models developed by focusing on the fluctuations of traffic observed at an intersection having heterogeneous traffic conditions in Ahmedabad city for delay estimation. Several parameters are extracted from on-field and video surveys. However, not all parameters are relevant for accurately estimating vehicle control delay. Hence, a feature selection process consisting of several feature-scoring techniques from filter, wrapper, and embedded methods is applied to all the parameters. This process gave insights into the most statistically relevant independent parameters, and out of all the parameters, cycle time was found to be insignificant, with a feature score of 0 from almost all techniques. Hence, it was removed,and then the prominent parameters were then used to build a vehicle control delay model using support vector regression (SVR), K-nearest neighbor (KNN), artificial neural network (ANN), random forest regression (RF), and decision tree regression (DT). Error distribution, standard deviation of errors, coefficient of Determination (R2), and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) are the parameters used for evaluating the performance of the machine learning models. RF outperformed them all with a standard deviation of errors, R2, and RMSE of 11.065, 0.926, and 11.081 on testing data. But ANN, KNN, and DT also performed satisfactorily. Compared with conventional standardized theoretical models, all the machine learning models except SVR performed better.