Estimation of various factors impact on the area of oil patches in the Middle Volga region

Abstract

The paper estimates the impact of various factors on the oil pollution area for the purpose of solving the problems concerning forecasting during oil spills from the inland waterways vessels (on the example of the Middle Volga region). The following factors were considered: current velocity, air temperature, water temperature, volume and type of spilled oil product, wave height, river bank tortuosity, wind speed and wind direction, bank type, river width. A fractional two-level factorial plan of Box and Hunter has been developed aiming to test the significance of the studied factors. Mathematical modeling of a group of oil spill scenarios in the Middle Volga region has been carried out. It has been revealed that the volume of the spilled oil product, the wave height and the river bank tortuosity impact the oil patch area to a large extent. Based on the results obtained, the authors suggest the order for ranking factors into four groups according to the degree of impact on the oil patch area, depending on the specified effect quantity: extremely significant, especially significant, highly significant and moderately significant. The research results have been applied in the working out of more than 30 object plans for the prevention and elimination of oil spills of organizations engaged in oil transportation and handling, vessel bunkering in the Middle Volga region, as well as the plan for oil spill prevention and elimination in the Volga basin of inland waterways.