Estimation of Vaccine Effectiveness of CoronaVac and BNT162b2 Against Severe Outcomes Over Time Among Patients With SARS-CoV-2 Omicron

Abstract

Few studies have evaluated the waning of vaccine effectiveness against severe outcomes caused by SARS-CoV-2 Omicron infection. Hong Kong is providing inactivated and mRNA vaccines, but the population had limited protection from natural infections before the Omicron variant emerged. To examine the change in vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization and mortality due to the Omicron variant over time. This case-control study included adults with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant infection who died or were hospitalized in Hong Kong from January 1 to June 5, 2022 (ie, case participants), and adults with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron, sampled from the public health registry during the study period (ie, control participants), who were matched to case participants by propensity score. Vaccination status of the individuals. Estimated vaccine effectiveness against death, death or hospitalization, and death among hospitalized patients. Vaccine effectiveness was calculated as 1 - adjusted odds ratio obtained by conditional logistic regression adjusted with covariates for each period following vaccination. There were 32 823 case participants (25 546 [77.8%] ≥65 years; 16 930 [47.4%] female) and 131 328 control participants (100 041 [76.2%] ≥65 years; 66 625 [46.6%] female) in the sample analyzed for the death or hospitalization outcome. Vaccine effectiveness against death or hospitalization was maintained for at least 6 months after the second dose of both CoronaVac (74.0%; 95% CI, 71.8%-75.8%) and BNT162b2 (77.4%; 95% CI, 75.5%-79.0%) vaccines. Vaccine effectiveness against death in those aged 18 to 49 years was 86.4% (95% CI, 85.8%-87.0%) and 92.9% (95% CI, 92.6%-93.2%) for those receiving 2 doses of CoronaVac and BNT162b2, respectively, while for patients aged 80 years or older, it dropped to 61.4% (95% CI, 59.8%-63.2%) and 52.7% (95% CI, 50.2%-55.6%) for CoronaVac and BNT162b2, respectively. Nevertheless, overall vaccine effectiveness against death at 4 to 6 months after the third dose was greater than 90% for CoronaVac, BNT162b2, and the mixed vaccine schedule (eg, mixed vaccines: vaccine effectiveness, 92.2%; 95% CI, 89.2%-95.1%). While vaccines were generally estimated to be effective against severe outcomes caused by SARS-CoV-2 Omicron infection, this analysis found that protection in older patients was more likely to wane 6 months after the second dose. Hence, a booster dose is recommended for older patients to restore immunity. This is especially critical in a setting like Hong Kong, where third-dose coverage is still insufficient among older residents.