Estimation of Uncertainty in Long-Term Sewer Sediment Predictions Using a Response Database

Abstract

Regulations require U.K. water companies to reduce the number of properties at risk of sewer flooding. One of the potential causes of sewer flooding is the presence of persistent sediment deposits in sewers, such deposits are a common problem in many combined sewers. Although the regulations are risk based, there is a gap in the current knowledge on how the risk assessment is affected by the uncertainty in sewer sediment transport prediction. This paper describes the development of a methodology for estimating uncertainty in sewer sediment deposit depth predictions using existing empirically calibrated sediment load equations and Monte Carlo simulations combined with a response database. This methodology has been used to estimate the range of uncertainty of in-pipe deposit build-up predictions for a U.K. combined sewer system that suffered persistent deposition problems.