Abstract
Travel times in urban road networks are highly stochastic. However, most existing travel time estimation methods only estimate the mean travel times, while ignoring travel time variances. To this end, this paper proposes a robust travel time distribution estimation method to estimate both the mean and variance of travel times by using emerging low-frequency floating car data. Different from the existing studies, the path travel time distribution in this study is formulated as the sum of the deterministic link travel times and stochastic turning delays at intersections. Using this formulation, distinct travel time delays for different turning movements at the same intersection can be well captured. In this study, a speed estimation algorithm is developed to estimate the deterministic link travel times, and a distribution estimation algorithm is proposed to estimate the stochastic turning delays. Considering the low sampling rate of the floating car data, a weighted moving average algorithm is further developed for a robust estimation of the path travel time distribution. A real-world case study in Wuhan, China is carried out to validate the applicability of the proposed method. The results of the case study show that the proposed method can obtain a reliable and accurate estimation of path travel time distribution in congested urban road networks.
Highlights
In recent years, urban road networks in many countries are becoming more congested [1]
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Provision of link or path travel time distribution information is a crucial requirement for travelers to make reliable route choice decisions incorporating travel time uncertainty
Summary
Urban road networks in many countries are becoming more congested [1]. To the best of our knowledge, only a few methods based on FCD have been developed to estimate travel time distributions in urban road networks. Jenelius [1] presented a statistical model to estimate travel time in urban road networks based on low-frequency FCD. Both the mean travel time and 95% confidence intervals were given. Along the line of previous work, this study proposes a robust method to estimate travel time distributions in urban road networks by using low-frequency FCD. Problem statement of travel time distribution estimAatrioonadisnienttwroodrkucceadn ibneSreecptrioesne2n.teTdhaesparodpiroescetdedmgertahpohd tGo =es(tNim, Aa,tΨe t)r,acvoenlstiismtinegdoisftraibsuettioofn ins
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