Estimation of transit ridership based on spatial analysis and precise land use data

Abstract

This paper focuses on land use as the primary variable for transit ridership estimation, with 100 000 points of interest (POIs) in Beijing being extracted from a digital map and classified into five categories according to main transit trip purposes. To better quantify the characteristics of the land surrounding a transit station and further assist sustainable zoning, a multi-level catchment area delineation method that includes pedestrian, traffic, and potential areas is applied. The built areas of different categories of POIs within various catchment areas are used to describe precise land use characteristics of 24 randomly selected transit stations in Beijing. A direct ridership model that involved land use characteristics is developed and combined with the ridership calculated using Beijing transit auto fare collection (AFC) data. Model validation with 10 other randomly selected stations meets initial expectations, indicating that the proposed model has the potential for use to provide a quantitative link between land use and travel demand.