Estimation of Transformers Health Index Based on the Markov Chain

Muhammad Yahaya,Mohd Ab Kadir,Norhafiz Azis,Mohd Hairi,Jasronita Jasni,Mohd Talib

doi:10.3390/en10111824

Muhammad Yahaya, Mohd Ab Kadir + Show 4 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/en10111824

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Abstract

This paper presents a study on the application of the Markov Model (MM) to determine the transformer population states based on Health Index (HI). In total, 3195 oil samples from 373 transformers ranging in age from 1 to 25 years were analyzed. First, the HI of transformers was computed based on yearly individual oil condition monitoring data that consisted of oil quality, dissolved gases, and furanic compounds. Next, the average HI for each age was computed and the transition probabilities were obtained based on a nonlinear optimization technique. Finally, the future deterioration performance curve of the transformers was determined based on the MM chain algorithm. It was found that the MM can be used to predict the future transformers condition states. The chi-squared goodness-of-fit analysis revealed that the predicted HI for the transformer population obtained based on MM agrees with the average computed HI along the years, and the average error is 3.59%.

Highlights

Transformers are counted among the important assets in a power system network, failures of which could lead to costly consequences
The application of Markov Model (MM) to predict the transformers deterioration performance curve based on Health Index (HI) was carried out in this study
It was found that MM can be used to estimate the future states of transformers based on HI

Summary

Introduction

Transformers are counted among the important assets in a power system network, failures of which could lead to costly consequences. There are still less studies that have been carried out to model the future future condition states of transformers based on HI. Other studies, such as those in References [6,9,15–. Condition states of transformers based on HI Other studies, such as those in References [6,9,15,16,17], 17], mainly focused on the utilization of the HI to determine the future reliability of transformers and mainly focused on the utilization of the HI to determine the future reliability of transformers and its its impact on the power system network.

Condition

Markov Chain Modeling Concept

Findings

Conclusions