Abstract
The growth intensity and direction change of tourism flow in the region have an important impact on the regional tourism industry. In this study, an autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL) model is used to construct a tourism flow prediction model in Jilin Province, and a Markov chain model is used to construct a tourism flow transition state probability matrix in Jilin Province, and the spatial distribution of tourism flow in Jilin Province was studied. The study results shows that the fixed asset investment in Jilin Province has gradually reduced its contribution to the tourism industry, but the number of service personnel has gradually increased its contribution to the tourism industry, it indicate that the growth potential of tourism is strong in Jilin Province. In terms of the spatial distribution of tourism flows, the distribution of tourism flows is quite different in regions of Jilin Province. The results show that the spatial transfer trend of tourism flows across cities in Jilin Province is that the tourism population has a high probability of flowing to Yanbian, Changchun, and Jilin City. Baicheng, Siping, Songyuan, Tonghua and Baishan are the last. This research results could provide reference to the spatial planning and management of tourism industry in Jilin Province.
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