Estimation of the value of life saving under uncertainty emanating from transport infrastructure investment

Abstract

In this paper a model for estimating the reduction of the probability of premature death emanating from a transport infrastructure investment is developed. As a starting point a reference probability of premature death is arbitrarily chosen and two measures of estimating the value of life saving are constructed based on the willingness to pay for the reduction in the casualty rate. These two measures are derived from the comparison of the probabilities of premature death before and after the reduction in the casualty rate to the corresponding reference probability. It is then shown that the relationship between the first measure and the reference probability premature death is upward sloping and concave and the relationship between the second measure and the reference probability of premature death is upward sloping and convex. Finally, we empirically tested both measures in the case of the Rion-Antirion suspension bridge which will connect the Western part of Greece through the Rion-Antirion sea strait with the region of Patras and consequently with Athens, providing a faster and more efficient service for the passage of the sea strait than the existing obsolete ferry system. The empirical results show that the theoretical propositions with respect to the concavity and convexity of the functions of each measure with the reference probability are verified.