Estimation of the Surface Water Budget of the La Plata Basin

Abstract

Abstract The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface hydrology model forced by gridded observed precipitation and temperature for the period 1979–99 is used to simulate the land surface water balance of the La Plata basin (LPB). The modeled water balance is evaluated with streamflow observations from the major tributaries of the LPB. The spatiotemporal variability of the water balance terms of the LPB are then evaluated using offline VIC model simulations, the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40), and inferences obtained from a combination of these two. The seasonality and interannual variability of the water balance terms vary across the basin. Over the Uruguay River basin and the entire LPB, precipitation (P) exceeds evapotranspiration (E) and the basins act as a moisture sink. However, the Paraguay River basin acts as a net source of moisture in dry seasons (strong negative P − E). The annual means and monthly time series of ERA-40 P are in good agreement with gauge observations over the entire LPB and its subbasins, except for the Uruguay basin. The E estimates from VIC and inferred from the ERA-40 atmospheric moisture budget are consistent in both seasonal and interannual variations over the entire LPB, but large discrepancies exist between the two E estimates over the subbasins. The long-term mean of atmospheric moisture convergence P − E agrees well with observed runoff R for the upper Paraná River basin, whereas the imbalance is large (28%) for the Uruguay basin—possibly because of its small size. Major problems appear over the Paraguay basin with negative long-term mean of atmospheric moisture convergence P − E, which is not physically realistic. The computed precipitation recycling in the LPB (for L = 500 km) exhibits strong seasonal and spatial variations with ratios of 0%–3% during the cold season and 5%–7% during the warm season.