Abstract

Estimation of the lifetime of a construction consists of forecasting the time remaining before failure and is based on extrapolation of the time dependences of the state parameters of a technical object to their critical values. The use for this purpose of simplified damageability models (e.g., a hypothesis of linear summation of flaws) and the absolute values of acoustic-emission (AE) parameters (e.g., activity, counting rate, duration of pauses) leads to a dependence of the estimate results on a large number of destabilizing factors and, as a result, to low accuracy or laboriousness of these techniques. An earlier suggested micromechanical model of AE parameters makes it possible to find a trade-off between simplicity and accuracy.

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