Estimation of the reliability of determination of filtering parameters of productive formations using multi-dimensional regression analysis

Abstract

Determination of reliable values of filtration parameters of productive strata is the most important task of monitoring the processes of developing reserves. One of the most effective methods for solving the problem is hydrodynamic testing of wells using the pressure recovery method, as well as modern methods - the pressure stabilization method and the method based on production analysis (Decline Analyze). This article is devoted to the assessment of the reliability of these three methods in determining the filtration parameters of terrigenous and carbonate productive deposits of oil fields in the Perm Krai. To solve the problem, multivariate regression analysis was used. A series of multidimensional mathematical models of well flow rates was built using filtration parameters determined for each of the methods. It is proposed to consider the filtration parameters included in the models with the maximum statistical estimates of performance as the most reliable. With regard to the fields under consideration, it was found that in terrigenous reservoirs, all three methods demonstrate stable results. In carbonate reservoirs, reliable values of filtration parameters are determined by processing pressure build-up curves. Pressure stabilization and production analysis methods show less robust results and require additional research in order to develop sound recommendations for their practical application. Keywords: permeability; skin factor; pressure stabilization curve; decline analyze; liquid flow rate; geological and technological parameters; oil deposit; carbonate deposits.