Abstract

In fruit breeding, the selection is often based on individual plant performance, therefore, the expected proportion of offspring having genotypic values exceeding a given critical value (EP) was estimated for soluble solids content (SSC) in Japanese persimmon (Diospyros kaki Thunb.). A simple model was used in the study: the mean value of offspring in a full-sib family is solely determined by the regression of that on midparental value (MP) and all families have an equal within-family variance due to segregation. The population consisted of 39 full-sib families with three offspring each. Between-family variance was much smaller than within-family variance. Genetic variance for MP was much smaller than that for offspring. The EP therefore was not highly affected by the regression. Based on the parental mean performance of 35 fruits on a single tree for three years, the proportion of offspring having SSC higher than 18% was estimated as 32%, 50% and 69% for three groups of MP differing in SSC, i.e. 16.5%, 17.5%, and 18.5%, respectively. The distributions which were predicted using those results for 246 offspring from 46 families, and 86, 44, 43 and 31 offspring from four selected families, respectively, were largely consistent with those observed.

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