Estimation of the past and future landslide hazards in the neighboring slopes of the 2016 Aranayake landslide, Sri Lanka

Abstract

A rapid and long-traveling landslide was triggered by a monsoon rainfall of a total of 446.5 mm for 3 days in the Aranayake area, Sri Lanka. The landslide destroyed 75 houses and killed 127 persons along the course of this landslide. The mechanism of this landslide was investigated by a joint team of the International Consortium on Landslides (ICL) and the National Building Research Organization (NBRO) of the Government of Sri Lanka in 2017 and 2018; the investigation was part of the WCoE and IPL projects. Physical properties of soil samples taken from the source area of the Aranayake landslide were examined through a series of undrained ring-shear tests, and the measured properties were used in a numerical method, LS-RAPID, to simulate initiations and motions of landslides in this area. The authors then tried to first reproduce a landslide, which was considered, from available pieces of evidence, to have most likely happened in the past, then, to assess the risk of a potential future landslide that is expected to occur close to the 2016 Aranayake landslide. Two possible sliding surfaces were assumed to develop through the soil mass, one along the boundary between the weathered surface soil and the jointed bedrock and another along a potential aquiclude inside the soil. This attempt to estimate movements of both past and future landslides based on the numerical reproduction of the 2016 Aranayake landslide hazard will help develop landslide hazard assessment technologies.