Estimation of the numerical modeling accuracy of the Black Sea thermohaline fields based on using ARGO profiling floats

Abstract

The paper considers the matters of numerical modeling estimation accuracy of temperature and salinity three-dimensional fields in the monitoring and forecasting center of the Black Sea. Automatic system of analysis and forecast of the Black Sea state is run in the center in an operational mode. The data of in situ measurements from ARGO profiling floats regularly provided by the European Marine Forecasting Service – Copernicus – were used to solve the problem. Spatial and temporal mismatch between the model data and in situ measurements was eliminated to form a joint sample of these two data sources. Comparison is performed for the time period from 2012 to 2015. The results show quite good simulation accuracy of the ther-mohaline fields, however, the problems of modeling the temperature fields in the 5-30 m layer were detected where there is a fairly narrow seasonal thermocline in late spring, summer and early autumn.