Estimation of the number of cancer survivors according to site in Japan.

Abstract

Based on incidence and survival data from the Osaka Cancer Registry, the numbers of cancer survivors were estimated by site in this study. The method used for estimation of survivors from all sites of cancer in the previous study was simplified further by not subdividing the data according to age-group. The observation period was the 25 years from 1960 to 1984. The number of incident cancers at all sites that occurred during the 25 years was estimated as 4,776,100. The leading sites of incidence during this 25-year period were the stomach (1,612,000), lung (427,100), and liver (329,100) for both sexes. The number of total cancer survivors on January 1, 1985 was estimated as 1,009,100. Among males, stomach cancer survivors accounted for 45% (180,100) of all survivors. The next most common sites were the rectum (7%, 27,000) and colon (6%, 25,600). Among females, the leading sites were the uterus (26%, 157,600), breast (22%, 132,100) and stomach (18%, 106,800). Most of the cancer survivors living at not more than 5 years after diagnosis were assumed to be receiving some kind of cancer medical care and were therefore regarded as an approximation of what is generally called "cancer prevalence." The number in this category for all sites was estimated as 417,900. The sites showing the largest numbers of these short-term survivors were again the stomach, followed by the rectum and colon among males, and the breast, uterus, and stomach among females. The reliability and utility of the results are discussed. The results are compared with other recently reported registry data from other countries and with other estimated data in Japan.