Estimation of the main conditions in (SARS-CoV-2) Covid-19 patients that increase the risk of death using Machine learning, the case of Mexico

Abstract

Nowadays, society faces a catastrophic problem related to respiratory syndrome due to the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2: the Covid-19 disease. This virus has changed our coexistence rules and, in consequence, has reshaped the daily activities in modern societies. Thus, there are many efforts to understand the virus behaviour in order to reduce its negative impact, and these efforts produce an incredible amount of information and data sources every week. Data scientists, which use techniques such as Machine learning, are focusing their abilities to develop mathematical models for analysing this critical situation. This paper uses Machine Learning techniques as tools to help understand some specific new patterns in Covid patients that arise from unknown complex interactions in the transmission-dynamic models of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, and their relation with the corresponding social contact patterns which are often known or can be inferred from populations variables. One of the main motivations of this research is to find the diseases that cause an increase in the risk of death in infected people with the Covid-19 virus. Mexico is the case of study in this research. The general conditions of health that cause death are well known generally in the world. However, these conditions in each country can differ depending on different factors such as the general health status of people. The results show that the principal causes of death in Mexico are related to age, bad eating habits, chronic diseases, and contact with infected people having not proper care. Results from the analysis show a remarkable accuracy of 87%, which is considered satisfactory.