Estimation of the Lifespan of Imported Passenger Vehicles in Mongolia

Abstract

In the last few decades, there has been an increase in second-hand imported vehicles in developing countries, including Mongolia. However, the extension of vehicle lifespans abroad promotes circular economy activities. In this study, we investigated the lifespan of second-hand imported passenger vehicles and their implication for the future sustainability of the transportation sector in Mongolia. The methodology used in this study comprised three stages. First, we conducted surveys to investigate the trends in second-hand vehicles in Mongolia. Next, the results from the survey on passenger vehicles were classified into three major categories based on their mode of operation, namely fuel, liquefied gas petroleum (gas), and the hybrid engine vehicle (HV) (of which the Toyota Prius is the most used vehicle in Mongolia). Finally, we estimated the average lifespan of vehicles using the Weibull distribution to measure before and after the import. The results show that the total average lifespans of all vehicles range between 17.3 and 20.2 years, respectively. The results highlight the different shape parameters of each vehicle category (fuel, gas, and HV), providing a better understanding of each vehicle’s lifespan and providing insights on the future management of second-hand imported vehicles, lifecycles, and recycling potentials for the successful development of sustainable transport policies in Mongolia.