Estimation of the export demand function (for example, Russia’s trade with Germany

Abstract

The authors of this scientific article propose an approach that allows to describe the dependence of the export dynamics of the studied exporting country on the socio-economic state of the importing countries, followed by modeling and forecasting the export development of the studied country, taking into account the analysis of various scenario conditions for the development of the world economy. Within the framework of this scientific article, we also provide our own methodological development of a criterion for the eff ectiveness of a country’s export, based on the formula used by the Federal Statistical Office of Germany for assessing the eff ectiveness (productivity) of a country’s export using our hypothesis about the relationship between the socio-economic state of importing countries and the dynamics of the country’s export volumes — exporter.