Estimation of the desert dust balance and its relationship with environmental factors in the southern Baja California Peninsula

Abstract

The emission, transport, and deposition of desert dust are influenced by environmental factors evaluated mainly as a function of precipitation, air temperature, and wind. The present study estimates the desert dust balance and its relationship with environmental factors for the period 1981–2020 in the Baja California Sur region, Mexico. Monthly data on wind, air temperature, precipitation, dust emission and deposition from in situ measurements, reanalysis, satellite estimates and a numerical parameterization scheme are used. First, the in-situ time series were reconstructed with a non-linear principal component analysis based on an autoassociative neural network. We then evaluated the performance of the satellite estimates and the reanalysis data using the matching technique, after which we quantified the dust emission in three source zones. To estimate the state of the climate, we obtained the annual cycle of monthly climatologies, and yearly averages. The effect of climate on the dust budget is estimated by means of non-parametric associations between the variables of interest. Finally, we estimate climate trends using Pettitt, Modified Man-Kendall and Theil-Sen tests. The results show that the data sets used represent the mean and variability of in situ measurements. There are three seasons with transitional periods for precipitation and air temperature. The wind shows a longitudinal west–east gradient. Its maximum intensity is from April to September. Northern zone was dominated by highest emissions. Dry deposition mechanism was the most representative. Emissions and dry deposition are controlled by wind intensity and precipitation, while precipitation controls wet deposition. The Pettitt test showed that abrupt changes in the time series coincide with periods where positive sunspot anomalies converge with negative PDO and SOI anomalies. Finally, trend analyses identified a temporal broadening of the dry season, warmer winters, and summers with increases of ~ 0.02 °C, predominantly increasing trends in dust emissions and wind intensity, and a progressive decrease in dust deposition mechanisms.