Abstract
BackgroundWorldwide, 36.7 million people were infected with Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) by the end of 2015. Over the period 2007 to 2015, there was a declining trend in the prevalence of adult Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) in the state of Kerala, India. The current study aims to find a suitable statistical modelling technique for the distribution of HIV incubation time and predict the cumulative number of AIDS cases.Materials and MethodsThe requisite data were obtained from the Kerala State AIDS Control Society (KSACS) for the years 2007 to 2015. To assess the distribution of HIV incubation time, the data of 22 HIV-infected Keralite patients were retrieved from the medical records of a teaching hospital. Data included age, gender, and incubation time. The back-calculation method was utilized to predict the cumulative HIV/AIDS cases.ResultsThe estimated total cumulative AIDS cases in Kerala for the years 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 were found to be 35,777, 48,944, 62,039, 45,669, 45,668, and 43,605, 42,377, 39,362, 37,617, 39,583, 25,414 respectively using back-calculation method with Weibull (2) incubation time distribution. The mean incubation time of the total HIV cases (male and female) was 4.4 years which indicates a rapid progression of the disease in the state of Kerala.ConclusionThe back-calculation method is a powerful tool to estimate the cumulative frequency of AIDS cases; which predicted a declining HIV trend among Keralites. Moreover, the Weibull distribution is the best fitted distribution for HIV incubation time in our population.
Highlights
The global epidemic of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection has varied markedly between the developed and developing countries, depending on the socio-cultural characteristics and behavioural patterns
Study design: It is a cross-sectional study to find out the distribution of HIV incubation time using data obtained from the medical records of 22 Keralite HIV patients treated at Mangalore and the annual reported number of HIV cases was collected from the Kerala State Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) Control Society (KSACS) for forecasting the number of AIDS cases
The actual frequency of AIDS cases in Kerala might be higher than our estimates and so there is a chance of under-representation of the possible number of AIDS cases
Summary
The global epidemic of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection has varied markedly between the developed and developing countries, depending on the socio-cultural characteristics and behavioural patterns. The present study aims to find a suitable statistical modelling technique for the distribution of HIV incubation time and predict the cumulative number of AIDS cases. Over the period 2007 to 2015, there was a declining trend in the prevalence of adult Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) in the state of Kerala, India. The current study aims to find a suitable statistical modelling technique for the distribution of HIV incubation time and predict the cumulative number of AIDS cases. Results: The estimated total cumulative AIDS cases in Kerala for the years 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 were found to be 35,777, 48,944, 62,039, 45,669, 45,668, and 43,605, 42,377, 39,362, 37,617, 39,583, 25,414 respectively using back-calculation method with Weibull (2) incubation time distribution. Keyword: Incubation time; Human Immunodeficiency Virus; AIDS; statistical modelling; Kerala
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