Estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number (R0) for COVID-19 Epidemic in District Level Named Rewa M.P. [INDIA

Abstract

Objectives: COVID-19 was announced as a global pandemic by World Health Organization (WHO) owing to its highly contagious and pathogenicity that has been rapidly spreading throughout the world since its first reported outbreak in China in December, 2019.The aim of this study was to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) and forecast the situation to understand the future transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak at a district level.Study design: Retrospective cohort study.Methods: We used two data sources for the study. Firstly, contact history of laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals & Secondly, the publicly available daily case count data were used together by applying approach named population level model (PLM) for estimating R0 and project the size of the epidemic over the next 365days as per SIR model with help of python.Results: The peak of the R0 = 2.3 was attained in the month of September 2020. Then subsequent reduction toward the end of September can be attributed to aggressive testing, more contact tracing, and isolation measures implemented in the Rewa district during that month so currently in month of November up to 22nd R0=1.8 reported according to our study.Conclusions: Combination of Public health measures such as social distancing, rigorous contact tracing & testing, and isolation of contacts and the vulnerable should be effective to reduce the instantaneous R0 value and could thereby reduce the final outbreak size.Funding Statement: There is no source of funding/ sponsor for this study.Declaration of Interests: There is no conflict of interest.Ethics Approval Statement: Ethical clearance was obtained from Institutional Ethical Committee.