Abstract
In order to precisely estimate human damage due to a large earthquake, it is important to grasp the spatio-temporal distribution of population in an urban area. This paper aims to construct models that describe the spatio-temporal distribution of population. The unknown parameters of the models are estimated using the data taken from a person trip survey and GIS data of Tokyo Metropolitan area. The characteristics of the spatio-temporal distribution of population are discussed and the accuracy of the models is statistically examined. Some numerical examples demonstrate that the proposed models can be applied to various researches in the field of disaster prevention planning.
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