Estimation of smoothing of consumer expenditures of Kazakhstan citizens and their chances to increase the demand for credit resources

Abstract

The decline in the level of well-being of the population has been observed in recent years in some countries of the near and far abroad, as well as the growth of debt obligations of individuals to second-tier banks. Various indicators are taken as the level of well-being of the population in foreign researches in order to verify these statements. The ability of individuals and households to smooth out consumer spending in response to temporary rather than permanent income shocks is one of the key determinants of well-being according to the permanent income hypothesis and life cycle theory. In this regard, the ability of Kazakhstan citizens to smooth out consumer spending in response to shocks in employment, wages, debt burden and changes in temporary income are studied, as well as the chances of an increase in applications of Kazakhstan citizens for credit resources to second-tier banks are assessed in the presented article. Data for 16 regions of Kazakhstan for 2003–2020 are used to calculate coefficient estimates for the variables of interest. The results obtained indicate the ability of Kazakhstan citizens to smooth out approximately 7 % of temporary income. Meanwhile, negative employment shocks contribute to a 0,22 % reduction in consumer spending, ceteris paribus. The level of education and the average age of Kazakhstan citizens have a positive effect on the growth of consumer spending. It should be noted that the average age in Kazakhstan is lower than in European countries. The economically active population of Kazakhstan are not inclined to increase the demand for credit resources in second-tier banks in response to negative wage shocks. The results of the research indicate the financial stability of second-tier banks in Kazakhstan. At the same time, the financial stability of banks are achieved by gradually reducing the volume of loans to individuals.