Estimation of slip rate and fault displacement during shallow earthquake rupture in the Nankai subduction zone

Abstract

Abstract Enormous earthquakes repeatedly occur in subduction zones, and the slips along megathrusts, in particular those propagating to the toe of the forearc wedge, generate ruinous tsunamis. Quantitative evaluation of slip parameters (i.e., slip velocity, rise time and slip distance) of past slip events at shallow, tsunamigenic part of the fault is critical to characterize such earthquakes. Here, we attempt to quantify these parameters of slips that may have occurred along the shallow megasplay fault and the plate boundary décollement in the Nankai Trough, off southwest Japan. We apply a kinetic modeling to vitrinite reflectance profiles on the two fault rock samples obtained from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP). This approach constitutes two calculation procedures: heat generation and numerical profile fitting of vitrinite reflectance data. For the purpose of obtaining optimal slip parameters, residue calculation is implemented to estimate fitting accuracy. As the result, the measured distribution of vitrinite reflectance is reasonably fitted with heat generation rate $$ \left(\dot{Q}\right) $$ Q ˙ and slip duration (t r ) of 16,600 J/s/m2 and 6,250 s, respectively, for the megasplay and 23,200 J/s/m2 and 2,350 s, respectively, for the frontal décollement, implying slow and long-term slips. The estimated slip parameters are then compared with previous reports. The maximum temperature, Tmax, for the Nankai megasplay fault is consistent with the temperature constraint suggested by a previous work. Slow slip velocity, long-term rise time, and large displacement are recognized in these fault zones (both of the megasplay, the frontal décollement). These parameters are longer and slower than typical coseismic slip, but are rather consistent with rapid afterslip.