Abstract
BackgroundThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is reported in Algeria on February 25th, 2020. Since then, the number is still increasing leading to a total number of 36,699 cases and 1333 deaths on August 12th, 2020. Thus, comprehension of the epidemic curve is very important to predict its evolution and subsequently adapt the best prevention strategies. In this way, the current study was conducted to estimate the parameters of the classical SIR model and to predict the peak of the COVID-19 epidemic in Algeria using data from February 25th, 2020 to August 12th, 2020.ResultsResults showed that the peak of the epidemic will be reached on September 8th, 2021 and the total infected persons will exceed 800,000 cases at the end of the epidemic. Also, more than 15 million persons will be susceptible. The reproduction number (R0) is estimated at 1.23254.ConclusionThese results may be helpful for the Algerian authorities to adapt their strategies and may be taken into consideration in the future phase of discontainment.
Highlights
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is reported in Algeria on February 25th, 2020
COVID-19 has been declared in Algeria on February 25th, 2020 in the South department of Ouargla, and it continues to spread in the country afflicting a total number of 36,699 cases on August 12th, 2020
The population of Algeria is estimated at 43,851,044 inhabitants in the middle of the year according to United Nations reports (Worldmeter 2020) which is the (N) value for the SIR modeling
Summary
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is reported in Algeria on February 25th, 2020. Comprehension of the epidemic curve is very important to predict its evolution and subsequently adapt the best prevention strategies In this way, the current study was conducted to estimate the parameters of the classical SIR model and to predict the peak of the COVID-19 epidemic in Algeria using data from February 25th, 2020 to August 12th, 2020. The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a respiratory viral disease first reported in Wuhan City, in China on December 2019 and turned epidemic worldwide (Lounis 2020) This disease has affected more than 21 million persons through the world leading to more than 6.000 deaths (JHUM 2020). Increased numbers have been reported due to different factors including the increase in daily performed tests and the remarkable relaxation and lighting in prevention measures associated with the alleviation of the containment measures This number is still increasing despite the strengthening of these measures in some departments. Multiple forecasting methods were used to analyze and predict the future trends of COVID-19 such as the logistic growth model (Zou et al 2020), stochastic susceptible–infectious–removed (SIR) model (Bagal et al 2020), susceptible–exposed–infectious–removed (SEIR) model (Al-Sayed et al 2020) and natural growth model (Huang and Qiao 2020)
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