Abstract
Abstract Ship maintenance is regulated by both the state and the classification society. The scope of maintenance works depends on the age of the ship and includes a dock, intermediate and special inspection. The problem is to estimate the reliable time of the ship maintenance and the downtime at the shipyard. The purpose of this article is to develop a more accurate model to predict a ship’s overall maintenance time. A multiple linear regression model is developed to describe the impact of historical data on hull repair, painting time, piping, age, structural and hull plate replacement for ship maintenance. In the literature, the least squares method is used to estimate unknown regression coefficients. The original value of the article is the use of a genetic algorithm to estimate coefficient values of the multiple linear regression model. Necessary analysis and simulations are performed on the data collected for oil and chemical or product tankers. As a result, a significant improvement in the adequacy of the presented model was identified.
Highlights
The goal of the shipyard is to ensure the supply of products and services for the period specified in the contract, in accordance with quality requirements and international standards
This paper presents a new approach to estimating the average ship repair time for managers, to assist in advanced planning in a shipyard
In order to increase the value of the presented method for managers, further simulations are run with an emphasis on obtaining an accurate forecast
Summary
The goal of the shipyard is to ensure the supply of products and services for the period specified in the contract, in accordance with quality requirements and international standards. Maintenance works depend on the requirements of classification societies and the possibility of their performance by the shipyard. One of the goals is to pre-define the maintenance work in the technical specification in order to limit any additional orders that arise during the maintenance, keeping the costs of the shipyards and vessels within the initially estimated budgetary margins. Another goal is to estimate the duration of maintenance in the technical specification, which depends on previously defined works. Any additional orders entail additional costs for both parties and result in extending the maintenance period of the dock. Additional costs and delayed ship delivery time may have a negative impact on the continuation of the assumed commercial obligations
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