Estimation of sea surface pCO2 and air–sea CO2 flux in the East China Sea using in-situ and satellite data over the period 2000–2016

Abstract

The partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) is an important variable to characterize the state of the seawater carbonate system. It is required to calculate the air-sea CO2 flux (FCO2) and for understanding ocean acidification. Surface ocean pCO2 is influenced by thermodynamic process, physical mixing, biological activity and air-sea gas exchange. Knowledge of the surface pCO2 in the East China Sea (ECS) is limited due to a lack of observations and well-informed models. This study employed in situ hydrographic (sea surface temperature and salinity) and carbonate system observations combined with satellite observations of chlorophyll a to develop a regional multiple non-linear regression (MNR) model to estimate pCO2 for three different physical-biogeochemical domains of the ECS. Comparison of the pCO2 from in situ observations with the MNR model had a root mean square error (RMSE) of 45.19 μatm and coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.87 in the transitional domain, an RMSE of 11.59 μatm and R2 of 0.92 in the shelf-dominated domain and an RMSE of 3.73 μatm and R2 of 0.97 in the open water domain. The reliability of the MNR model was also validated using an independent dataset with a good accuracy (RMSE of 9.15 μatm for domain II and RMSE of 7.71 μatm for domain III). The MNR model was applied to estimate the surface pCO2 and FCO2 for ten cruises on the period of 2013–2018, and also used to predict monthly surface pCO2 by using Changjiang Biology Finite-Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM) outputs for the period of 2000–2016 on the ECS inner shelf, and analyzed the seasonal and interannual variability of surface pCO2 and FCO2. The seasonal dynamics of sea surface pCO2 were mainly attributed to temperature changes, biological activities and water mixing process over the seasons. The time series of surface pCO2 and FCO2 on the ECS inner shelf showed an increasing trend of 3.32 ± 0.79 μatm yr−1 and 0.018 ± 0.0125 mol CO2 m−2 yr−2, and the region was a CO2 sink with an CO2 uptake of 0.12 ± 0.48 Tg C yr−1.