Abstract
Private vehicle travel is the most basic mode of transportation, so that an effective way to control the real-world fuel consumption rate of light-duty vehicles plays a vital role in promoting sustainable economic growth as well as achieving a green low-carbon society. Therefore, the factors impacting individual carbon emissions must be elucidated. This study builds five different models to estimate the real-world fuel consumption rate of light-duty vehicles in China. The results reveal that the light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) model performs better than the linear regression, naïve Bayes regression, neural network regression, and decision tree regression models, with a mean absolute error of 0.911 L/100 km, a mean absolute percentage error of 10.4%, a mean square error of 1.536, and an R-squared (R2) value of 0.642. This study also assesses a large pool of potential factors affecting real-world fuel consumption, from which the three most important factors are extracted, namely, reference fuel-consumption-rate value, engine power, and light-duty vehicle brand. Furthermore, a comparative analysis reveals that the vehicle factors with the greatest impact are the vehicle brand, engine power, and engine displacement. The average air pressure, average temperature, and sunshine time are the three most important climate factors.
Highlights
The data used in this study were obtained from two sources: the real-world fuel consumption rate records reported by vehicle owners in the BearOil app and the monthly dataset of the surface climate and road grade in some regions of China
We took the average value of the fuel consumption for the same car models and obtained 142,005 items of data
The results reveal that the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) between the reference fuel consumption rate and the real-world fuel consumption rate was approximately 26.4%
Summary
In the context of climate worsening and China’s commitment to achieve carbon peak in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060, regulations on fuel consumption are increasingly becoming stricter. China has implemented a series of measures to control the fuel consumption rate of vehicles. In September 2019, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) of the People’s Republic of China and other relevant ministries issued the “Decision on Amending the Measures for the Parallel Management of Average Fuel Consumption of Automobile Enterprises and New Energy Vehicle Score”. The objective of introducing the automobile enterprise fuel consumption score is to promote the sustainable development of China’s new energy vehicle industry, accelerate the transformation of the energy structure, upgrade the traditional gasoline vehicle industry, and achieve a set of other goals in accordance with carbon neutrality. To improve the performance and accuracy of the fuel consumption score, which aims at reducing fuel consumption, the most effective method is to expand the production of purely electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles
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