Estimation of Real Incomes of the Russian Economy Amidst Changes in Foreign Trade Conditions

Abstract

The article covers the results of the author’s study on improving the methodology for measuring (estimating) the impact of foreign trade on the nature of reproduction processes in the Russian economy. The parameters and nature of domestic economic development are largely determined by its reproductive model based on raw material exports. The shift in external conditions (from very positive to severe negative) was, according to the author, one of the main factors in the transition from the spectacular growth during «boom» years from 1999 to 2008, and stagnation of the «lost decade» from 2010 to 2019.The article reviews methodological provisions of the international statistical standard – 2008 SNA for calculating aggregates of real income for the total economy, profit (or loss) from foreign economic activity with emphasis on the need to take into account changes in terms of foreign trade in recent Russian history, before the coronavirus pandemic of 2020–2021. Various approaches to calculating macro-indicators of foreign trade activity – trading gains and losses and real income for the total economy are analyzed within the concept of a system of national accounting. In this regard, the article analyzes indicators under consideration in the context of terms-of-trade changes and highlights the relationship between GDP volume (at comparable prices) and real income characteristics in the macroeconomic system.To ascertain the evolution of characteristics of the impact of the export-raw commodity orientation of Russian foreign trade on the reproduction in general, the author within the 20-year period under consideration selected several separate periods: 1995–1998 – transformational recession, 1999–2008 – uniquely favorable conditions, 2009–2014 – recovery from the global crisis, 2015–2019 – transition to macroeconomic stability. The impact of foreign trade on the national economy was analyzed. There is a conclusion about the additional analytical capacity of researchers dealing with problems of reproduction amidst globalization using the following national accounts indicators: profit (loss) from foreign trade and real income aggregates - in a rapidly changing external economic environment.